The IPO prices Friday and the major compute deals are already signed. Nothing about operating decisions or vendor stacks shifts this week.
- $75 billion stock offering is reportedly approaching four times oversubscribed ahead of Friday’s pricing.
- Morningstar pegs fair value at $825 billion, against the roughly $1.8 trillion bankers asked for.
- Three engineering bets carry the gap, reusable Starship, a US chip foundry, and a faster satellite line.
- SpaceX sells compute to Anthropic and Google while still building its own AI stack on top.
What Happened
SpaceX prices its $75 billion IPO on Friday, with demand approaching four times the shares available and some institutional buyers ordering $10 billion blocks.
The offering values the company near $1.8 trillion. Two independent analyses cut that sharply, with Morningstar landing at $825 billion and NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran at $1.2 trillion.
Morningstar’s analyst frames the difference between its $63 fair value per share and SpaceX’s $135 offering price as a $72 call option on orbital data centers. SpaceX already sells compute to Anthropic and Google, with the Google arrangement reported at $920 million a month.
The company’s S-1 sets the addressable market for enterprise AI at $22.7 trillion, against $2.4 trillion for AI infrastructure and just under $2 trillion for space.
Why It Matters
The valuation gap is not about the launch business. Both analyses treat Starlink and the launch monopoly as the safest parts of the bet, with the AI compute layer carrying the risk.
Skeptics point to the production math. Musk’s target of a gigawatt of space compute by the end of next year requires building roughly 556 AI satellites a month, more than twice the current Starlink rate of 70 a week.
Terafab, the company’s chip foundry, is still in development, and Starship has not shown the rapid reusability the orbital data center plan depends on. Industry experts generally place space data centers at scale a decade out.
Watch @ElonMusk provide a technical update on SpaceX’s capability to manufacture, launch, and operate AI satellites at scale → https://t.co/PSCyWrNsOg pic.twitter.com/vhtr46uax7
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) June 8, 2026
This is not a promise of what we’ll do. This is what we are going to try to do, and think we probably can do. Elon Musk, CEO, SpaceX
Bottom Line
The next test is whether Starship completes its FAA mishap investigation and returns to flight on a schedule that supports Starlink deployment by year-end. Production output at the AI satellite line is the other tell, with monthly numbers turning into either proof points or delays.
For founders evaluating where AI compute pricing sits in eighteen months, SpaceX going public turns a private bet into a public one. The same compute their model vendors lease will trade daily, and that scoreboard will shape vendor negotiations whether teams want it to or not.
